March 28, 2018

SHI 3.28.18 History Repeats

  Let me apologize right up front:  This is a lengthy BLOG post.   For this reason, I’m going to summarize my points below … and if […]
March 21, 2018

SHI 3.21.18 FED Day: Following the Script

  As expected, the FED raised its benchmark federal-funds rate by 25 basis points.  This is the 6th increase of 25 basis points since December 17, […]
March 14, 2018

SHI 3.14.18 Trump, Tariffs, and Trade

  Let’s deconstruct the issue.   Do trade deficits matter?  Trump and his advisor, Peter Navarro, believe the answer is a resounding yes. My opinion?   My answer […]
March 7, 2018


  But this makes them no less valid as predictive metrics.   For example, take a look at the Economist chart below.   Notice the 6-month movement in […]